Rural Q3 2022 Market Insights
Geopolitics continues to drive the wheat market.
Headwinds for oilseeds with lower crude & recessionary fears.
Available stocks remain tight
After the shock of the Ukraine invasion, the market settled back to pre-war levels as the conflict appeared to get bogged down but more importantly, solutions to the supply bottleneck were underway. The evolution of the grain corridor, finally allowing grain to be shipped from Ukraine, gave the market some hope that a workable solution was found.
Increasing supply and fumbling demand
US90CLprices fall on weakening US demand and high domestic slaughter
Biosecurity threatens export demand
Variability, vulnerability and ultimately, resilience, were key characteristics of the cattle market in quarter three 2022. Prices recovered strongly from the lows hit in early August as biosecurity panic subsided and the outlook for pastoral conditions continued to improve.
LAMB & SHEEP
Slaughter space remains constrained
Spring lamb supply behind average pattern in most regions
No sign of easing demand in export markets
Lamb and sheep prices tend to follow a consistent seasonal pattern from July. The middle of the year usually marks the low in supply and thus the peak in price, from which gradually increasing numbers, pressure prices lower. This year has been anything but normal.
Economic backdrop deteriorates
Fine micron premiums still high despite shrinkage
Wet seasonal conditions locked in for balance of season in most regions
The greasy wool market fell sharply during September in both Australian and US dollar terms. Wool was not the only fibre suffering with cotton down 21% from late August and down 40% from early May (albeit from extraordinarily high price levels). The apparel fibres are reacting to continuing negative economic news coming from the major northern hemisphere economies where wool is consumed as apparel.
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